Economics

Antithesis in the Persian Gulf

Transactional Sovereignty in the Strait "The spice must flow." In Frank Herbert’s Dune, that iron law sustained an interstellar empire. In April 2026, it governs the real world. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies have historically passed, stands severely restricted amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Tanker traffic has plummeted. Brent crude has surged past $100–$110 per barrel, with spikes higher in recent weeks. Gas prices are climbing in the United States and far more painfully elsewhere. Thousands of vessels sit idle or reroute at enormous cost. President Trump’s…

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The Spice Must Flow

Realpolitik in the Gulf: Why History Says Oil Prices Will Plunge After Epic Fury Folks, grab a cup of coffee and let me walk you through something that’s been playing out like a classic American story: one where Uncle Sam steps in, guns blazing, to keep the world’s lifeblood moving at honest market prices. I’m talking about oil, that black gold we all pretend not to think about until the pump price bites. And right now, in the middle of Operation Epic Fury, the global oil markets are giving us a masterclass in realpolitik: power protects supply, supply sets the price,…

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TikTok Socialists Stay Silent on Cuba

Socialism's '93%' Myth in 2026: Stossel Fact-Checks It, Cuba's Collapse Crushes It John Stossel has made a career out of exposing economic illiteracy with facts, not slogans. His 2025 viral video "What Socialist Influencers Get Wrong (Just About Everything)" still hits like a sledgehammer. He calls out TikTok stars claiming "socialism works better than capitalism 93% of the time!", a meme directly ripped from a 1986 paper by Shirley Cereseto and Howard Waitzkin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJMGNVLAKC0 That paper ("Capitalism, Socialism, and the Physical Quality of Life," International Journal of Health Services) used 1983 World Bank data to claim socialist countries beat capitalist ones…

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From Branches to Booms

A Bold Vision for Capital Gains Tax Reform The past week delivered a stark reminder that markets are still groping for solid ground. Gold, after climbing toward $5,300 an ounce in a frenzy of inflation-hedge buying, cratered to around $4,890-a 10% wipeout in a matter of days. Silver suffered far worse, plunging roughly 35% from peaks above $130. Bitcoin tested $78,000 after teasing six figures, Ethereum followed suit, and equities took their lumps too: the Russell 2000 shed more than 7%, Nasdaq proxies dropped 4–5%, and the broader indices followed in lockstep. One widely shared thread on X captured the carnage…

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Tax the Fruit, Not the Branches

A Supply-Side Answer to the Deflation Warning Anthony Pompliano dropped a clear warning this week. Truflation’s real-time dashboard shows U.S. inflation at 1.21% year-over-year-down sharply, well below the Fed’s lagging 2.7% BLS print for December. He’s been saying it for months: the real threat isn’t runaway inflation. It’s deflationary pressure from weak demand, delayed purchases, and a middle class that’s pulling back. Inflation is now at 1.2% according to @truflation.For the last year I have been warning that deflation was a much bigger risk than inflation.The Federal Reserve completely screwed this up.They must cut rates aggressively now! pic.twitter.com/WZ6dpfjYS5— Anthony Pompliano 🌪…

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A Better Option Than Rebate Checks

A Case for Capital Gains Tax Relief Over Tariff Rebate Checks: Igniting Sustained Economic Growth In the wake of President Donald Trump’s bold tariff agenda, generating over $214.9 billion in 2025 alone, the United States stands at a pivotal economic crossroads. Two competing proposals have emerged to harness this tariff windfall: Trump’s $1,000-$2,000 rebate checks for American households, funded by tariff revenues, and a capital gains tax cut, as advocated in my columns "Friday Forecasting" and "It's Time to Cut the Capital Gains Tax", featuring tiered rates for U.S. stocks and a flat rate for foreign gains, as outlined in the…

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Bad Data Means Bad Decisions

The Urgent Need for Reliable Economic Data: Reforming the BLS and Federal Reserve In September 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) dropped a bombshell: a preliminary benchmark revision slashing nonfarm payroll growth by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 2025-the largest such adjustment on record. This follows a prior year’s revision of 818,000 fewer jobs, with cumulative overstatements over recent years exceeding 2 million according to conservative estimates. These revisions, reported across outlets like CNBC, RedState, HotAir, The Blaze, PowerLineBlog, and Breitbart, expose a critical flaw in the U.S. economic data ecosystem: policymakers and businesses cannot rely on…

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America Needs an Interest Rate Cut Now

Time for a Rate Cut: Powell’s Inaction Is Costing American Families and Small Businesses The Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, is once again dragging its feet, and American families and small businesses are paying the price. The June 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) report, released July 16, 2025, shows inflation cooling-flat month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%. Coupled with a flat June Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.0% year-over-year, the data screams for a rate cut now, not in September or Q4. Powell’s history of missteps-too slow to raise rates during the “Bidenflation” surge of 2021-2022 and now…

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Tariff Trauma

Chasing the Dragon from the Market China Faces the Same Economic Realities the Soviets Did in the 1980s As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, two starkly different visions for confronting China’s economic might are taking center stage. The Trump administration’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective April 2025, have already sent shockwaves through China’s export-driven economy, slashing U.S.-bound shipments by 30% and threatening 16 million jobs. Yet, investor Kevin O’Leary’s audacious call for 400% tariffs aims to deliver a knockout blow, targeting Beijing’s alleged trade violations with unprecedented aggression. China, reeling from deflation, a property crisis, and faltering consumer confidence, is…

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