Analysis

The Empty Platform

Democrats Will Regret Running an Issueless Campaign Democrats have entered the final stretch of the 2026 midterms without a domestic platform they can defend. Their campaign rests on opposition to Donald Trump, the promise of investigations, and a generic claim of “government corruption” that they have attached to the current administration. They name affordability as a problem and then decline to offer a remedy that survives contact with either the record of the last Democrat administration or the proposals still endorsed by their candidates. The structure is familiar. It is the same structure that failed the out-party in 1998 and again…

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The Dark Horse Senate Race

Republicans Can Win New Hampshire New Hampshire is not Massachusetts. The independent lane, the ground game, and the race that can flip the map. New Hampshire is the dark horse Senate race of 2026. I have had my eye on it for months. The campaign is playing out as I expected and it remains a very winnable race for John Sununu. Public polls still show Chris Pappas ahead by mid-single digits. Ratings have drifted toward Lean Democrat. Those instruments have misread this state before. They miss the independent and undeclared voters who decide races here, and they miss the non-response pattern…

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The Willow Bend Deal

The Arena and the Legacy of Bad Public Financing Deals Plano ISD just locked up to $250 million of future school-tax growth for a Dallas Stars arena without a public vote. Plano ISD just agreed to hand over up to $250 million of future school-tax growth to help build a new arena for the Dallas Stars at the site of the dying Willow Bend Mall on the city's west side. . The board approved the deal. The city council signed off. No public vote was required. On paper the arrangement looks tidy. In practice it locks away money the schools could…

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Talarico’s Skin Suit Campaign Ad

Fisking Talarico's Latest Ad A skin suit is what the spot is selling. It is not a senator. Thirty seconds. A Texas flag. A Monday Night Football audience. James Talarico in a suit, telling the state he will put Texas before any party, that he called out Joe Biden, that he worked with Republicans to pass the largest property tax cut in Texas history, that he will fight for oil and gas jobs, that Ken Paxton will be a lapdog, and that he will bring checks and balances back. #TexasSenate AdImapct: James Talarico releases new ad touting his bipartisan credentials and…

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A Look at House Campaign Spending

Follow the Money Two documents landed on the same day, and they do not require a commentator. Julie Merz of the DCCC told donors the committee needs $17 million by October 22 or it will leave winnable races on the table. The Congressional Leadership Fund filed $32.8 million across 31 House races with the FEC. One is a plea. One is a wire. Rush Limbaugh spent years teaching a simple rule. Follow the money. Money never lies. Tonight it spoke twice, and it said the same thing from opposite ends of the ledger. The plea Merz opened with confidence. The party…

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Losin’ Texas

The Preacher Texas Will Not Hire He’s losin’ Texas, I can tell. Gen X already knows the face. Isaac. Black hat. The child preacher whose sermon did not belong to the town. James Talarico gives off the same vibe. Soft voice. Still smile. Holy language in a room that is not holy. That flinch is not a movie joke. It is how a lot of people get to the real word before they get to the tape. Inauthentic. Texas has hired preacher candidates. It has not hired this one and thought ours. I wrote in March that he would not win…

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They Needed an Issue

Watch the Diner, Watch the Memo N.B. This morning: Watch the Diner. I wrote this morning that you watch the diner. The chain wants a smoking ban and a living wage. Six months later the independent shop is a parking lot and nobody passed a bill titled Kill the Diner. They passed public health. What Washington did today is name the chain. Over one weekend the frontier labs asked the country to slow down. Monday morning Chuck Schumer demanded a classified briefing for every senator on “unchecked AI.” Before nightfall Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Kamala Harris were speaking from the…

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Watch the Diner: The Regulatory Capture of the AI Health Code

The Restaurant Chain Wants a Smoking Ban and a Living Wage Who Writes the Health Code? I have never believed a tool decides a people. I said that when the argument went to orbit. I said it when the argument came down to a pad and a hearing. I will say it again in a room every town already knows. Two weeks ago the question on the pad was the hall. Neighbors. Load. A ledger and a vote. Creaturehood was the measure then because particular people still have to live there after the ribbon. This month the same men are selling…

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Declassified 9/11 Presidential Daily Briefings

Heed the Book, Question the Narrative The CIA posted the 1998-2001 portfolio this morning. I write this as a man who has watched official story-making do its work twice in one lifetime. The first time, the country buried a presidential warning under a commission narrative and a laugh line. The second time, agencies, legacy newsrooms, and the platforms that now police speech treated dissent on a virus, a lab, and a shot as a hygiene problem. I do not stitch those years into one plot. I use the second as a warrant to reopen the first. Once a government has sold…

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Here’s to Better Ideas

Repeal the Surtax A $5,000 check is a rally line. Killing the 3.8 percent investment tax is a statute. Dallas, Wednesday night. The line was built for the hall. “If the Republicans win,” the president said, “you win with us and you get $5,000.” He called it a Trump Dividend. Spend it in America. Pretend he is on the ballot one more time. I have a counter-proposal. It is not a check. It is not conditioned on an election night. It does not require the Treasury to invent a mailing list of a quarter-billion adults and then police where they shop.…

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