Congress

Thursday Takes

Quick Takes: Thursday Takes House Passes Amended Budget Resolution The House narrowly passed the Senate-amended budget resolution for fiscal year 2025 on April 9, 2025, by a vote of 216-214. This resolution sets the stage for a reconciliation process, allowing Republicans to advance major tax and spending legislation with a simple majority, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster. It includes provisions for extending tax cuts, increasing border security and defense spending, and implementing federal spending reductions. The passage faced resistance, with two Republicans voting against it, reflecting internal party tensions. This step moves Congress closer to drafting a reconciliation bill to enact…

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Friday Forecasting

Capital Gains Tax Scenarios and Analyses Executive Summary This analysis explores a proposed capital gains tax structure-15% flat rate for foreign/non-qualifying gains and tiered rates for U.S. domestic stocks (7.5% for 1-3 years, 5% for 3-5 years, 2.5% for 5-10 years, 0% for 10+ years, with no NIIT)-evaluated under diverse economic scenarios tied to Trump’s tariff policies as of April 2025. Starting with a static revenue loss of $10.025 billion annually ($100 billion gains baseline), the study employs static and dynamic scoring to assess fiscal impacts, ranging from optimistic tariff-driven growth to severe recessionary shocks, culminating in a V-shaped recovery scenario.…

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Thursday’s Terrifically Terrifying Tariffs Talk

The older I get, the more I realize how we make idols out of everything, including ideas.  Lately I've been thinking of my own views and how they have changed the past thirty years of relative adulthood.  I say relative because at the core of every man is a naughty twelve-year old boy sniggering in the back of a middle school classroom. See what I mean?  It's just the way guys are. Back to some seriousness if I must because I'm in a long term transitional period called life.  I'll let Jules explain. My friend Doc used to call me a…

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Wednesday Wraps

As part of an effort to deliver content and keep my writing wits sharp, I'm going to post a daily series of Quick Takes. Some may carry more weight and be more serious than others.  Wednesday Wraps is a perhaps not so Quick Take. Tariffs The elephant in the room today was the brThe older I get, the more I realize how we make idols out of everything, including ideas.  Lately I've been thinking of my own views and how they have changed the past thirty years of relative adulthood.  I say relative because at the core of every man is…

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The myth of Medicaid cuts: Explaining Baseline Budgeting

The Democratic claim that the Republican budget resolution authorizes up to $880 billion in cuts to Medicaid originates from an interpretation of the budget resolution passed by the House of Representatives on February 25, 2025. Specifically, it stems from the resolution's directive to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, to identify at least $880 billion in spending cuts over a decade. This figure is part of a broader Republican plan to reduce mandatory spending by up to $2 trillion to offset extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and fund other priorities like border security and…

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