Wednesday Windings

Midweek Quick Takes

This week’s debates have thrust antisemitism, political violence, and media accountability into sharp focus, exposing deep divides in American discourse. On The Tara Palmeri Show, Scott Jennings clashed with the host over the roots of political violence, citing incidents like the May 22, 2025, assassination of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, D.C., and the June 1, 2025, Boulder attack, injured 12 people with Molotov cocktails at a pro-Israel event, as evidence of left-wing antisemitic aggression. A CNN panel on NewsNight with Abby Phillip further highlighted tensions, with conservative voices challenging denials of antisemitism among progressive figures like “The Squad.” Misleading Hamas-sourced reports about Gaza violence risk fueling antisemitic tropes, while unverified claims about USAID cuts, and Nellie Ohr’s false testimony in the Crossfire Hurricane probe raise concerns about narrative manipulation and institutional bias. Amidst these tensions, strong Q2 2025 economic projections offer hope, though tariff uncertainties loom, reflecting a nation grappling with truth and division. And without further ado, here are the midweek takes.

Antisemitism and Political Violence in America

Two high-profile debates this week have brought the contentious issues of antisemitism and political violence into sharp focus, exposing deep divides in American political and media circles. On Sunday, conservative strategist Scott Jennings appeared on The Tara Palmeri Show, clashing with host Tara Palmeri over the origins of political violence. Palmeri argued that such violence came from both political sides, referencing the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the 2022 attack on Paul Pelosi. Jennings forcefully rejected this “both sides” narrative, asserting that the left was primarily responsible.

He cited specific incidents: vandalism against Tesla dealerships linked to Elon Musk’s role in Trump’s administration, alleged support for Luigi Mangione, accused of attempting to assassinate UnitedHealthcare’s CEO, and the May 22, 2025, assassination of two Israeli Embassy staffers outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., where the suspect, Elias Rodriguez, shouted “Free Palestine.” Jennings framed the D.C. shooting as evidence of left-wing antisemitic violence, accusing Democrats of enabling pro-Hamas sentiments. This exchange, detailed in a Townhall article, ignited a broader debate about political accountability for rising antisemitism.

On Monday, another fiery exchange unfolded on CNN during Abby Phillip’s show, NewsNight with Abby Phillip, further amplifying the controversy. The panel, featuring conservative strategist Shermichael Singleton, former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, and Bill Kristol, erupted when Phillip denied an “antisemitism contagion” within “The Squad,” a group of progressive Democratic congresswomen including Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Phillip insisted that Squad members “have not been antisemitic,” a claim that stunned Singleton and Sununu. 

They countered with evidence: Omar’s statement during Columbia University protests labeling some Jewish students “pro-genocide” for supporting Israel, and Ocasio-Cortez’s engagement with pro-Hamas agitators on campus, coupled with her equivocal stance on Israel. Singleton and Sununu branded Phillip’s denial a “provable lie,” a moment captured in a video clip shared on X by DeVory Darkins on Tuesday. Both Townhall and RedState reported on the panel, noting how it highlighted a broader media reluctance to confront antisemitism on the left, with Phillip’s stance seen as emblematic of this denial.

Hamas Lies

On Sunday, the BBC reported a shooting near a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) aid site west of Rafah, citing Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, which claimed 31 Palestinians were killed and 175–200 injured, blaming Israeli forces. The IDF denied targeting civilians, stating warning shots were fired 1 km away and releasing unverified drone footage alleging a Hamas gunman fired at civilians. A graphic video, circulated by Al Jazeera, purportedly showing Israeli forces firing, influenced early BBC coverage. On Monday, BBC Verify clarified the video was geolocated to a different place and time, unrelated to the incident, admitting an error but not retracting the casualty narrative based on Hamas sources. The original BBC story is no longer accessible, suggesting it was quietly deprioritized or removed, a tacit acknowledgment of its unreliability without a formal retraction.

In the White House briefing on Tuesday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt criticized the BBC’s “shifting narrative,” stating, “We do not take Hamas’ word as absolute truth,” slamming media for amplifying unverified Hamas claims. The Red Cross confirmed casualties (50 wounded, two dead), indicating violence occurred, but Israel’s media restrictions prevented independent verification. This discredited narrative, rooted in Hamas’s unverified claims, fueled accusations of a blood libel, falsely portraying Israel as massacring civilians, a trope historically used to incite antisemitic violence.

On Tuesday, ABC News reported 27 killed and over 90 injured near a GHF site in Rafah, citing Hamas’s Health Ministry and Nasser Medical Complex. The IDF acknowledged a shooting 500 meters away, targeting suspects, not civilians, while the GHF denied incidents at its sites. Outlets like CNN and Reuters echoed Hamas-sourced figures. Leavitt’s call for scrutiny of Hamas claims questioned the report’s reliability. Without independent access or footage, the second incident remains unsubstantiated. Both incidents, driven by Hamas’s unverified narratives, risk perpetuating blood libels, falsely accusing Israel of deliberate civilian attacks, potentially stirring antisemitic violence.

Doubting USAID Cuts Narrative

Last week, U2’s Bono claimed on the Joe Rogan Experience that 300,000 people died due to Trump-era USAID funding cuts, citing a model by Brooke Nichols. Critics like Elon Musk, who called Bono a “liar/idiot” on X, and David Strom, writing for HotAir, dismissed the figure as baseless. With only three anecdotal deaths-Babagana, a twin, and an unnamed Nigerian woman-linked to the cuts, and zero evidence proving causation, the 300,000 claim crumbles, exposing a narrative driven by speculation over fact.

Nichols’ Impact Counter estimated 218,708 deaths by April 26, 2025, projecting 310,000 by June, based on disruptions to USAID programs like PEPFAR, tuberculosis, and malaria initiatives in regions like Nigeria and Myanmar. Yet, as Strom argued, models aren’t evidence. The Washington Post emphasized that precise attribution is impossible without robust data, which collapsed health systems struggle to provide, leaving projections open to skepticism.

The three cases are shaky. NPR reported Babagana’s death from sickle cell disease after a USAID-funded clinic closed, PBS News cited Yagana Bulama’s twin dying of malnutrition, and a Democrat hosted roundtable hosted by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen mentioned a woman’s death from pneumonia. No medical records or official reports confirm the cuts as the sole cause; local healthcare gaps, systemic poverty, or other factors could be at play. Musk claimed “zero” deaths, and Rogan questioned USAID’s fraud, amplifying doubts about the narrative’s foundation.

Supporters point to Myanmar’s 300% malaria surge Al Jazeera as evidence of broader harm, but no verified body count exists. The roundtable led by Shaheen warned of millions of potential deaths, including 500,000 from vaccine cuts, echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders’ concerns about 2–3 million annual deaths. These remain speculative projections, not grounded in confirmed fatalities. With only three unproven cases, Bono’s 300,000 figure feels like a house of cards, unmoored from reality, fueling accusations of exaggerated advocacy over evidence.

Nellie Ohr’s False Testimony and the Crossfire Hurricane Cover-Up

In 2016, Nellie Ohr, a Fusion GPS contractor and Russia specialist, played a pivotal role in the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation into alleged Trump-Russia ties. A declassified FBI document from September 2019, released by Sen. Chuck Grassley on May 28, 2025, reveals Ohr likely lied to Congress in 2018 about her contributions, raising serious questions about her criminal exposure and the investigation’s integrity. The document suggests Ohr’s false statements violated federal law, yet she faced no prosecution, fueling claims of political bias in the DOJ and FBI.

Hired by the Clinton campaign through Perkins Coie, Ohr researched Trump’s alleged Russian connections for Fusion GPS, contributing to the discredited Steele dossier and possibly the “Alfa dossier.” The FBI analysis shows she falsely testified that her work was unrelated to the DOJ’s probe and denied drafting the Steele dossier. However, 2016 emails to her husband, Bruce Ohr, a senior DOJ official, included research on figures like Carter Page and Paul Manafort, directly tied to Crossfire Hurricane. Ohr also deleted emails with DOJ prosecutors, suggesting intent to conceal her role, which could indicate obstruction of justice. Her actions potentially violated 18 U.S.C. § 1001 (false statements) and § 1505 (obstruction).

A 2019 criminal referral by then-Rep. Mark Meadows urged prosecution, but the DOJ’s inaction, contrasted with aggressive cases against Trump allies like Roger Stone, was deemed “deeply disturbing” by Grassley. Ohr also misrepresented her ham radio training, claiming it predated her Fusion GPS work, but records show it occurred in 2016, possibly enabling covert communications to avoid surveillance. This raises further suspicion about her intent to obscure her activities during a highly sensitive political investigation.

The FBI’s Sentinel system, with its “Prohibited Access” designation, may have hidden Ohr-related documents, limiting transparency and oversight by Special Counsel Durham and Inspector General Horowitz. Senior DOJ officials’ lack of awareness of this feature highlights systemic oversight failures. Grassley’s declassification efforts, backed by FBI Director Kash Patel, underscore calls for accountability, as Ohr’s unpunished actions erode trust in the rule of law, prompting broader scrutiny of the FBI’s handling of politically sensitive investigations.

Positive Economic News Due for Q2

The U.S. economy in Q2 2025 is poised for a strong rebound, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projecting 4.6% real GDP growth as of Monday June 2, a significant recovery from Q1’s -0.3% contraction. Over the past eight quarters (Q2 2023–Q1 2025), GDPNow has underestimated actual GDP growth by an average of 0.11%, suggesting Q2 growth could hit 4.7%. This optimism stems from cooling inflation, robust job growth, a shrinking trade deficit, and rising consumer confidence, though Trump’s tariff policies introduce risks, with recent economist warnings about inflation nearing 4%.

Inflation has eased, with the Consumer Price Index at 2.3% in April 2025, a four-year low, driven by a 20% drop in gas prices and a 55% decline in egg prices. However, within the last six weeks, Michael Contopoulos of Richard Bernstein Advisors warned on May 30, 2025, that tariffs could keep inflation “reasonably sticky” at 3.5–4%, noting that their removal could shift this trajectory if growth slows. A 90-day tariff pause with China has delayed price spikes, providing short-term consumer relief, but renewed tariffs could reverse this trend.

Job growth remains a pillar of strength, with April 2025 showing wage increases of 0.8% and low unemployment, though exact job creation figures are unavailable. Consumer confidence, reportedly at a four-year high, fuels spending, aligning with the Atlanta Fed’s bullish GDP outlook. However, the OECD warns that prolonged tariffs could raise unemployment and slow U.S. growth to 1.6% in 2025, particularly if global trade weakens.

The trade deficit contracted nearly 50% in April, driven by a 20% import drop and 3.1% export rise, reflecting adjustments to tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 10% globally. Tariff revenues reached $23 billion in April, bolstering federal funds. Yet, Q1’s import surge, tied to tariff front-loading, contributed to GDP contraction, underscoring trade policy volatility. The stock market, up 10% since Trump’s inauguration, reflects optimism about domestic investment, but global growth concerns linger, with the OECD forecasting the weakest global economy since COVID-19.

The Atlanta Fed’s 4.6% projection assumes fading import drags and sustained consumer spending, but Contopoulos’s warning highlights tariff-driven inflation risks. Monitoring BLS inflation reports, BEA trade data, and Federal Reserve commentary will be critical to determine whether these positive trends-lower inflation, job growth, a narrower trade deficit, and buoyant confidence-endure amidst tariff uncertainty and potential global slowdown.

Below is a comparison of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow final projections for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) versus the actual GDP growth reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the last eight quarters (Q2 2023–Q1 2025). The variance (difference) is calculated as GDPNow Final Projection minus BEA Actual GDP Growth. A row with the average difference is included. For Q1 2025, the gold-adjusted model is used, as it better aligns with BEA’s methodology and was closer to the actual result. Data is sourced from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow archive and BEA reports, with updates from recent web sources where applicable.

Comparison of GDPNow Projections vs. Actual GDP Growth

Quarter
GDPNow Final Projection (%)
BEA Actual GDP Growth (%)
Difference (Projection – Actual, %)
Q2 2023
2.6
2.1
+0.5
Q3 2023
4.9
4.9
0.0
Q4 2023
2.3
3.4
-1.1
Q1 2024
2.7
1.6
+1.1
Q2 2024
2.0
3.0
-1.0
Q3 2024
2.8
2.5
+0.3
Q4 2024
2.7
2.3
+0.4
Q1 2025
-1.5 (gold-adjusted)
-0.3
-1.2
Average
2.3
2.4
-0.11


Notes:

  1. Data Sources:

    • GDPNow final projections are from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow archive and commentaries, accessible at https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.

    • Actual GDP growth rates are BEA advance estimates unless specified, sourced from Atlanta Fed materials and BEA reports.

    • Q1 2025 uses the BEA’s first estimate (-0.3%) and the gold-adjusted GDPNow projection (-1.5%), as the standard model (-2.7%) was skewed by a surge in gold imports. The gold-adjusted model better reflects BEA’s methodology.

  2. Q1 2025 Context: The gold-adjusted model was introduced to account for a record $29.1 billion in gold imports, which inflated the trade deficit and depressed the standard model’s projection. The adjustment added approximately 1.2 percentage points to the forecast, aligning closer to the actual -0.3% contraction.

  3. Accuracy: The average absolute forecast error for GDPNow just before BEA’s advance estimate is about 0.77 percentage points, indicating reasonable accuracy. The largest error occurred in Q1 2025 (-1.2%), driven by trade data distortions, while Q3 2023 was spot-on (0.0%).

  4. Limitations: The GDPNow model relies on real-time data without subjective adjustments, making it sensitive to volatile inputs like net exports and inventories. Early-quarter projections are less reliable, but accuracy improves as more data is incorporated.

This table reflects the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s performance, showing a slight tendency to underestimate growth (average difference of -0.11%). The Q2 2025 projection of 4.6% could thus be adjusted to 4.7% if this historical bias persists.

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James K. Bishop

James K. Bishop is a conservative writer and raconteur hailing from Texas, known for his incisive and often provocative takes on political and cultural issues. With a staunch commitment to originalist constitutional principles, he emphasizes limited government, individual liberties, and traditional American values. Active on X under the handle @James_K_Bishop, he frequently engages his audience with sharp critiques of progressive policies, media narratives, and overreaches by the federal government. His style is direct, often laced with humor and wit, which resonates strongly with his conservative followers.